Escalating military tensions between the United States and Iran are beginning to disrupt global shipping lanes, raising freight costs and forcing major container carriers to reroute vessels away from the Middle East. The situation intensified after large-scale U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets on Feb. 28, 2026, heightening security risks across several strategic maritime corridors that connect Asia and Europe.
The Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy and shipping corridors, has emerged as the most immediate flashpoint. Iran has issued security warnings that have slowed vessel movements through the strait. Although the waterway has not been formally closed, several shipping lines have suspended or rerouted sailings due to the elevated security risk. The conflict has also weakened expectations that the Red Sea shipping route will recover in 2026, prompting many carriers to consider diverting vessels around the Cape of Good Hope instead of transiting the Suez Canal.
Logistics costs are expected to rise sharply if the disruption persists. Industry analysts say freight rates for a 40-foot container could surge above $5,000, roughly two to three times normal levels, echoing price spikes seen during previous disruptions in 2024–2025. Marine insurers have also begun reviewing and increasing war risk premiums for vessels operating in the Persian Gulf, while rising Brent crude prices are expected to drive higher fuel surcharges for both maritime and air cargo transport.
Rerouting vessels around southern Africa rather than passing through the Suez Canal could extend Asia–Europe shipping times by 10 to 14 days, putting additional pressure on just-in-time supply chains, particularly in sectors such as automotive components, electronics and perishable agricultural goods.
Vietnamese exporters could also be affected, especially in the agricultural sector. Products such as fresh fruit and seafood may face higher logistics costs and increased quality risks due to longer transit times and greater cold-chain requirements.
Preliminary reports indicate that several ports in the Middle East have temporarily suspended operations, including Jebel Ali Port operated by DP World. Many vessels that were scheduled to transit the Suez Canal have reportedly performed U-turn diversions to avoid entering the Red Sea. Several shipping lines have also announced the introduction of war risk surcharges for vessels operating in conflict-affected waters. Major global carriers including CMA CGM, Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have confirmed plans to reroute vessels via the Cape of Good Hope to avoid the conflict zone, while MSC has temporarily suspended new bookings to destinations in the Middle East
